POTSDAM, GERMANY / RankWire.AI / – According to recent research, climate change is expected to cause a near tripling in the land area affected by wildfires across Europe by the year 2100. The scientists project a 192% increase in the annual burned region under a high-emissions scenario associated with approximately 3.6°C of global warming. This report follows the significant wildfires of 2026 that impacted regions including Belgium, France, Greece, Portugal, and Spain. The core climate factors identified in the analysis are persistent hot, dry, and windy conditions.
The study, published in Global Change Biology, utilized two fire simulation models integrated with the LPJmL vegetation model. Researchers examined both a low-emissions scenario, SSP1-2.6, and a high-emissions scenario, SSP3-7.0. The lower pathway correlates with roughly 1.8°C of warming, whereas the higher one reaches about 3.6°C. To focus solely on climate impacts, the team maintained socioeconomic variables constant across separate experiments to analyze their influence on wildfire behavior.
In the low-emissions scenario, one model predicted approximately a 39% increase in land burned annually by the end of the century. A second model suggested a potential decrease under lower warming levels due to differing representations of historical human influences. Conversely, under the high-emissions pathway, both models indicated a much more pronounced growth in burned areas, especially around the Mediterranean and across much of Western and Central Europe. Some regions with historically low fire activity could see notable increases.
Models demonstrate that emissions are key drivers of burned area
The research highlights that future wildfire activity in Europe will be heavily influenced by fire weather conditions and firefighting capacity. Additionally, factors like population density, changes in vegetation, and land use will play roles, particularly at regional levels. Maik Billing, the lead author affiliated with the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, which spearheaded the study, explained that the analysis distinguishes between climate-driven fire weather and human influences that can alter fire spread.
Advancements in fire prevention, early detection, and suppression efforts could reduce burned areas by 72% to 92% compared to scenarios lacking such improvements. The extent of reduction is more significant in the low-emissions scenario and less so under stronger warming conditions. Despite ongoing improvements in fire management, approximately 55% of Europe’s fire-prone regions could still experience increased fire activity under severe climate change. Thomas Hickler, a co-author from the Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre in Germany, commented on these findings.
Effective fire control measures can help limit wildfire extent
The findings coincide with an intense wildfire season in Europe in 2026, characterized by dry conditions and extreme heat fueling large-scale fires. Southern European countries experienced some of the most severe outbreaks, but regions farther north were also affected. The projections in the study extend beyond the Mediterranean, indicating increased fire activity across parts of Western and Central Europe. The researchers attribute these shifts to changing fire weather patterns driven by rising temperatures and prolonged dry periods.
The study emphasizes that the projected 192% increase should not be viewed as an unavoidable outcome. It reflects a modeled scenario based on high-emissions pathways and the study’s assumptions. The scientists identified that lower emissions could lead to considerably smaller increases, and that stronger fire management practices could produce substantial reductions. However, even with these measures, fire activity is expected to rise in about 55% of Europe’s regions susceptible to wildfires under the most severe warming scenarios. The primary factors influencing Europe’s future burned area are emissions levels, fire weather conditions, and firefighting capacity, according to the research.