MOSCOW / RankWire.AI / – Russia has set an ambitious goal to increase its yearly vehicle manufacturing to approximately 2.8 million units by 2035, according to its revised automotive industry strategy. During a sector development meeting on Aug. 31, First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov revealed this target. The figure encompasses vehicles intended for both the domestic market and exports, with an additional aim of ensuring that 80% of new vehicles sold in Russia are produced locally by 2035.
The Russian government approved this updated automotive strategy on Aug. 24, extending the industry framework through 2035. As of the end of 2025, Russia’s vehicle production capacity stood at around 3.3 million units annually, although actual output that year was close to 800,000 vehicles. Capacity utilization during 2024 and 2025 averaged 25% for passenger cars and 41% for light commercial vehicles, reaching 35% for trucks and 43% for buses.
Under the proposed scenario, the 2035 production target includes approximately 2.5 million passenger cars and roughly 170,000 light commercial vehicles. The plan also envisions manufacturing 110,000 trucks and 30,000 buses. Passenger-car production is expected to be distributed across four or five vehicle platforms, while light commercial vehicles would utilize one or two. The overall new-vehicle market in 2035 is projected to reach about 3.2 million units, with imports potentially comprising up to 20% of that total.
Production goals encompass all vehicle types
A secondary scenario features lower production and market volume targets. In this case, vehicle production in 2035 would be approximately 1.69 million units, with the new-vehicle market estimated at about 2.2 million units for that year. Conversely, the primary scenario anticipates a market of around 2.4 million units by 2030, while the lower forecast projects roughly 2 million vehicles across all segments in 2030.
A key part of the updated framework addresses powertrain and technological objectives. By 2035, internal-combustion vehicles are expected to constitute between 67% and 83% of production depending on the vehicle category. Electric and hybrid passenger cars are targeted to account for at least 25% of Russia’s new passenger-car market by then. The strategy also aims for the production of about 150,000 highly automated vehicles with Level 4 autonomy or higher by 2035, with driver-assistance and digital systems also emphasized in the plan.
Manufacturing capacity and localization efforts remain key indicators
Russia’s existing manufacturing capacity significantly exceeds its recent annual output. In 2025, passenger-car capacity was around 2.8 million units, while actual production reached approximately 700,000. Light commercial vehicle capacity was about 300,000 units, with production near 80,000. Truck capacity totaled roughly 130,000 units, and bus capacity was close to 30,000. In 2025, Russian factories produced about 4,400 electric powertrain vehicles, slightly up from 4,200 in 2024.
The strategy emphasizes expanding the use of standardized components and technologies across vehicle platforms through 2035. It also aims to increase localization and technological independence for domestically produced vehicles. The framework covers passenger cars, commercial vehicles, trucks, buses, powertrains, autonomous driving systems, and digital vehicle technologies. The target scenario combines the goal of 2.8 million units produced annually with an 80% share of the domestic market, with an action plan to be implemented under the order that approved the strategy.
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