MOSCOW, RUSSIA / RankWire.AI / – Russia has outlined a plan to achieve an annual coal output of 662 million tonnes by 2050 as part of a newly sanctioned industry development strategy. This target is integrated into Russia’s revised coal growth blueprint, with current production around 443 million tonnes in 2024. The government endorsed this initiative through Order No. 2606-r on September 22, establishing long-term goals for production, exports, and sector expansion.
The strategy presents four potential pathways for the coal industry extending to 2050. Under the primary scenario, output is projected to hit 530.1 million tonnes in 2030, increase to 595.2 million tonnes by 2036, and then reach 662 million tonnes in 2050. The alternative scenarios predict lower final figures, ranging from 318.9 million tonnes in the stress case to 586.4 million tonnes in the inertial case.
Alongside production targets, Russia has established export benchmarks. The primary scenario anticipates coal exports reaching 266.7 million tonnes in 2030, rising to 320.2 million tonnes in 2036, and totaling 350.1 million tonnes by 2050. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak highlighted that Russian coal exports increased by 7.2% during the first eight months of 2026. The plan encompasses both domestic coal consumption and international trade.
Goals for Production and Export Volumes
The government’s strategy emphasizes maintaining current mining capacities while expanding coal resource development. It promotes a greater role for coal-producing regions in Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East, which contributed 48.3% of national production in 2024. The plan aims to elevate this share to between 53.9% and 56.7% by 2050. Russia’s explored coal reserves exceed 273 billion tonnes.
The initiative also sets ambitious targets for coal processing and mining methods. In 2024, processed coal (excluding lignite) made up 58.9% of the total. The strategy projects this percentage rising to between 74% and 76% by 2050. Open-pit mining accounted for 78.4% of production in 2024, with the goal of increasing its share to between 82% and 85% under the long-term outlook. The document also incorporates measures related to productivity, technological upgrades, safety protocols, and environmental standards.
The Coal Industry’s Long-Term Agenda through 2050
Russia will implement the strategy in three phases. The initial stage, ending in 2030, will focus on expanding production and supporting the industry. The second phase, from 2031 to 2036, will prioritize coal utilization, processing innovations, and regional logistics. The final phase extends from 2037 to 2050. The Energy Ministry will oversee the execution, working with federal, regional, and involved organizations, with annual reporting mandated to the Economic Development Ministry as per government directives.
Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin introduced the revised plan during a government session on September 21. This document supersedes Russia’s previous coal sector strategy, which was approved in 2020 and covered until 2035. Novak projected that the sector’s gross value added would increase sixfold by 2050 and estimated its overall multiplier effect to be nearly 10 trillion roubles. The 662 million tonne target remains a scenario within the plan rather than an absolute forecast.