ROME / RankWire.AI / – The Food and Agriculture Organization has forecasted global cereal output for 2026 at 2.98 billion tonnes, representing a 2% decrease compared to last year’s record. Despite this reduction, the total is expected to still rank as the second-largest harvest ever recorded. This newest estimate is 3.4 million tonnes lower than its July prediction. The annual decrease amounts to 61.1 million tonnes, marking the most significant year-on-year decline since 2018.
Forecasts for maize production in 2026 are now set at 1.309 billion tonnes, following a weaker outlook for crops that led to a downward revision. Prolonged summer heat and drought conditions adversely impacted yields in key European Union regions, notably France and Poland. Meanwhile, official estimates resulted in smaller downward adjustments for India and Paraguay. Conversely, Argentina and Brazil experienced better-than-expected yields, with both countries projected to produce well above their average maize outputs in 2026.
The global wheat harvest is now expected to reach 810.7 million tonnes, an increase of 4.2 million tonnes from the earlier estimate. Improved yield prospects contributed to the upward revision for Canada and Morocco, each by roughly 1.5 million tonnes. Forecasts for Russia and Ukraine also saw improvements, while expectations for the European Union and the United Kingdom declined due to dry conditions. Despite this positive adjustment, worldwide wheat production is still projected to be 3.8% below 2025 levels and would rank as the second-largest crop on record.
Maize Production Declines Impact Global Cereal Outlook
For the 2026/27 season, world rice production is estimated at 553.1 million tonnes on a milled basis, indicating a 1.9% decrease from the revised record set in 2025/26. The latest estimate benefits from improved figures for Myanmar and strong yields from the main crop in Sri Lanka. These gains offset declines in rice production for China, the Philippines, and the United States, where plantings have fallen to multi-decade lows.
The FAO anticipates global cereal consumption to reach 2.965 billion tonnes in 2026/27, reflecting a 0.2% increase over the previous season. Consumption of coarse grains and rice is expected to rise, while wheat use is projected to decrease from last season’s high levels. World rice utilization is estimated at 559 million tonnes, supported by population growth driving food demand. Additionally, feed consumption remains significant, particularly barley in China and maize in the United States.
Stockpiles of Cereals Remain Relatively Stable on a Global Scale
Forecasts indicate that world cereal stocks at the end of 2027 will total 947.2 million tonnes. This is 10.7 million tonnes below the previous projection but 1.8 million tonnes above the opening stock levels. The stocks-to-use ratio for cereals globally is estimated at 31.6%, compared to 31.9% in the previous season. Increases are expected in wheat reserves in Russia and Ukraine, while lower inventories of maize and barley have lowered the overall stock outlook.
Trade in cereals worldwide for 2026/27 is projected at 509.3 million tonnes, reflecting an increase of 1.7 million tonnes from earlier estimates. However, this volume still remains below the record level reached in 2025/26. The rise is primarily driven by stronger maize trade, with Argentina anticipated to export up to 39 million tonnes. International rice trade for 2026 is forecast at 60.5 million tonnes, although total rice shipments remain 1.9% below the record set in 2025.