GENEVA / RankWire.AI / – The World Trade Organization has upgraded its projection for worldwide merchandise trade expansion in 2026 to 3.9 percent, up from the previous estimate of 1.9 percent issued in March. The WTO attributed this optimistic revision to robust trade activity in the first half of the year, along with supply chain adjustments and increased investments in artificial intelligence. Despite significant disruptions impacting energy, transport, and fertilizer markets, merchandise trade volume increased by 3.5 percent during the initial half of 2026. The organization now anticipates a merchandise trade growth of 4.1 percent in 2027.
Demand driven by artificial intelligence has emerged as a key factor behind merchandise trade growth in the first half. AI-enabled products such as semiconductors and servers represented 47 percent of global merchandise trade growth, with trade in these items rising 67 percent compared to the previous year. The WTO also noted that global expenditure on AI infrastructure is expected to rise by at least 30 percent in 2026. The strong demand for computing hardware has supported trade flows, even as other sectors faced disruptions from conflicts and transport limitations.
Adjustments in global supply chains have also responded to pressures across major commodity and shipping markets. Crude oil exports from the Middle East declined by approximately 24 percent during the first half of 2026, while exports of liquefied natural gas from the region fell by 47 percent over the same period. Nevertheless, increased shipments from other suppliers limited the overall decline in crude oil to about 6 percent. Meanwhile, global LNG exports only decreased by 1 percent. Worldwide container throughput grew by 3.9 percent through July, as trade was rerouted through alternative ports and corridors.
AI-enabled products bolster global merchandise trade
The optimistic outlook for goods contrasts with more subdued expectations for commercial services trade. The WTO lowered its 2026 forecast for services trade volume growth to 3.3 percent from 4.8 percent in March. Disruptions in the Middle East have exerted greater pressure on transport and international travel, leading to a 0.8 percent decline in international tourist arrivals during the second quarter. Overall, arrivals in the first half of the year increased only 0.4 percent. Additionally, growth in travel expenditures decelerated sharply from the first to the second quarter.
Other service sectors experienced stronger results despite setbacks in travel and transport. Exports of computer services grew 18 percent year-on-year in the first quarter, with the WTO estimating second-quarter growth at 12 percent. Exports of financial services rose 14 percent in the same period. The organization predicts a 6.4 percent increase in commercial services trade volume for 2027, alongside projections of 2.6 percent global GDP growth in 2026 and 2.9 percent in 2027.
Uneven regional patterns persist in trade expansion
Forecasts for merchandise trade growth vary considerably across regions. The WTO expects Asia to lead with a 9.9 percent increase in exports in 2026. North America is forecast to see a 5.7 percent rise, while Africa is projected at 5.6 percent. South America is expected to experience a 3.4 percent growth, whereas Europe could see a slight decline of 0.1 percent. The Middle East faces the largest contraction, with merchandise exports predicted to decrease by 17.2 percent during the year.
Import growth also shows significant regional disparities. Asia is projected to increase merchandise imports by 9.5 percent, with Africa at 8.9 percent. North American imports are anticipated to grow by 1.4 percent, and Europe by 0.5 percent. Conversely, merchandise imports in the Middle East are expected to fall by 15.4 percent. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala remarked that recent figures demonstrate trade resilience while also highlighting the unequal exposure of different regions to economic and geopolitical disruptions.